Currency markets will be driven Monday by the potentially game-changing news over the weekend that the European Union is willing to lend as much as €100 billion ($125 billion) to help Spain shore up its banking sector.
Whether the euro gets a boost from this latest attempt to contain the euro zone's sprawling debt crisis will depend, however, on whether investors believe that even such a hefty amount is enough to keep Spain's banks afloat.
"Markets should react favorably to this deal," said Douglas Borthwick, head of trading at Faros Trading in Stamford, Conn. But he added, "There will be healthy discussion over the coming days as to whether €100 billion is enough to recapitalize Spanish banks."
The market will also question whether this means a restructuring of Irish and Portuguese bailouts is in the offing and whether Italy may also approach the EU for help with its banks, he said.
After a lengthy conference call among European finance ministers on Saturday, the Spanish government said it had agreed to make a formal request for the funds, which will be dedicated solely toward the bank sector. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Sunday tried to convince the Spanish public that an EU bailout for the country's banks will help shore up the ailing economy and dispel doubts about the common European currency. Spain's banks have been hit by bad loans as property prices have tumbled.
Even if there is a short-term gain for the euro, Dan Katzive, currency strategist at Credit Suisse in New York, thinks the common currency is in for more of its recent weakness. He expects the euro to fall toward $1.20 as global central banks and European institutions continue to wrestle with the consequences of the region's sovereign-debt crisis.
On Friday, the euro traded weaker across the board. Late Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.2517, down from $1.2561 late Thursday. The common currency also fell to ¥99.48 from ¥100.02. Just a month ago, the currency traded at $1.30. The dollar was at ¥79.48 late Friday from ¥79.63.
Also on traders' radar this week will be Greek parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 17. While there will be a blackout in terms of polls this week, market participants will be keeping close watch to get some sense of how the voters may be moving.
At issue is whether the parties willing to enforce austerity measures will win a sufficient majority to enable the country to receive the next instalment of aid from European agencies. If they can't take enough seats to form an effective government, many fear that Greece may be forced to exit the euro zone, an event that would reverberate through world markets.
Traders will also be positioning for the possibility that central banks could step in to take additional measures to boost their economies. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't indicate if the central bank would introduce another bond-buying program, and the European Central Bank's Mario Draghi didn't introduce any fresh programs to ease funding.
But if the situation in Europe worsens and the U.S. economy continues to weaken, some in the market expect central banks to step in, possibly in a coordinated fashion.
Carl Forcheski, a director on the corporate currency sales desk at Société Générale in New York, said the Bank of Japan could intervene if the yen continues to rise on safe-haven flows against the euro and the dollar. "It'll be expected if there is significant stress," Mr. Forcheski said.
